Running On Empty
I recently attended a regional conference focused on the prediction and effects of a major energy shortage, accompanied by a steep rise in energy costs. The forecast is based upon a concept called “peak oil.” By reviewing historical data associated with in-ground, untapped oil reserves, and already tapped reserves with extraction rates available, College professor and author Richard Heinberg has calculated that the world’s untapped oil reserves peaked in the 1970s, and that since then, the amount of oil and natural gas available for extraction has continuously declined, and will continue to do so.
This, of course, has occurred while world’s demand for oil has increased, not only in the developed industrial countries, but in the developing nations of the world as well, particularly China and the Far East. Accordingly, says Heinberg, we are on the verge of a spike in energy prices unlike any we have seen in the past. He predicts that increases of 35% per year are likely, and that unless programs for developing other sources of energy and drastically reducing energy consumption are implemented immediately, the global economic effects will be stunning.
In the past year, gasoline prices have increased by close to $1.00 per gallon. If Heinberg is right, this will be the case next year, and the next and the next. Imagine the ripple effect such energy costs will have on budgets, both domestic and governmental. For example, the greatest user of electricity in California is the State Water Project, the huge pumping stations that send water around the state; they use enormous amounts of electricity and this electric power is generated primarily in oil and natural gas fired plants. The increased cost of energy to the state will drain money from other programs, and place pressure on local governments to pay for programs amid an atmosphere of reduced state financial assistance. Moreover, the population of the state is predicted to increase by 40% by the year 2020.
From a regional perspective, a surge in energy prices will place additional financial pressure on our local government budgets, and may reduce tourism and visitor travel, reducing revenues available for the general fund of both the county and the cities in Sonoma County. As consumers struggle to keep up with energy costs, their discretionary spending will drop, and sales tax revenue will fall as well.
What can we do to ameliorate these problems? Not much very quickly, I’m afraid. But the conference did result in some concrete ideas, including: conversion of municipal diesel vehicles to bio-diesel (made from non-oil sources); drastically increased use of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind-generated electricity; the review of zoning and development regulations to streamline homeowner adoption and installation of renewable energy systems; replacement of older, inefficient power equipment such as aging refrigerators and other such machinery; conversion from incandescent bulbs to neon bulbs; increased production of locally grown produce to reduce reliance on food products delivered by truck from outside the area; and massive public education programs. Heinberg has delivered the clarion call; it now remains to be seen if anyone is listening.
First published 5/31/06
